|Latin America I 2001
|A Vision for Wireless Internet Applications
The convergence between mobile telephony and the Internet is shifting the balance between spending for equipment and spending for applications and services. These services will change the way we do business and deal with our daily routine. A wide variety of companies – information management, Internet technologies, streaming multimedia technology, content providers, device manufactures, wireless service providers and Internet service providers – are joining forces to develop these new services.
The two most dynamic technological forces in telecommunications history will converge into one ubiquitous service that will forever change the speed of business and the pace of everyday life. The Internet and wireless will merge into one service that business user and consumers will use daily. Personalised services will be delivered to individuals based upon knowledge of the user’s location, desires, needs and schedule. Homes will be secured with wireless alarm systems, cars will alert the mechanic and the driver when there is a problem and most applications will be built ‘geo-location ready.’ These context sensitive services will create a new dimension that enhances today’s static, fixed, wired Internet. Companies committed to creating this new Internet dimension are leveraging and channelling the innovation, creativity and investment that is fuelling the wired Internet into the Wireless mobile marketplace. They are working with leading companies across the entire value chain to foster this environment. Our vision is an industry empowered by an open platform that enables the rapid creation of applications and services. This platform will enable service providers to quickly respond to changing marketplace requirements at the speed of the Internet. Current technological evolution is driving the sector to substitute hardware expenses with spending in services and applications. (see Brazil’s Equipment Market graph below). The goal is to create a comprehensive killer platform, not just one killer application, seeking a sustainable, profitable business model for the industry, not just a flash fad. Marketplace The fixed, wired, Internet is a powerful force. There are over 320 million users of the Internet today. In the US household penetration rates are estimated at 30 percent for 1999 and are expected rise to 66 percent by 2003 (Yankee Report). In Brazil, e-business opportunity will expand from US$198 million this year to over US$38.6 billion in 2005. Based on the country’s population and market size, natural resources and strategic geopolitical positioning, Pyramid Research believes that it will eventually become Latin America’s leading centre for e-business beyond our forecast period. As it is, Brazil will account for 36 percent of all e-business activities in the Caribbean and Latin America regions in five years. The B2B segment in Brazil, will rise the most in the next 4 years (2005). In 2003, B2B will be 50 percent of the total e-business and totalling almost 97 percent in 2005. According to International Data Corporation e-commerce is expected to grow to US$1 trillion in 2003 with the majority of purchases being business procurement. The Internet and Intranet are now an essential part of business practice. The Internet has proven to be a cost-effective means for external marketing, internal knowledge sharing and business to business relationship management. The PC is the device most commonly used to access the Internet, almost exclusively from a fixed, wired location, with other IP-centric devices now emerging. While the Internet in Europe has historically lagged behind North America, this trend is changing. The emergence of free ISP services such as Freeserve, BT, Click Free, toll free calling plans such as BT’s recent announcement for weekend subscription plans, along with inexpensive, and in some cases free PCs, have combined to further the penetration rates in leading European markets. In the UK, estimates are that the 12.5 million adults online by the end of 1999, will rise to 20 million by 2003. Home users comprise approximately 60 percent of this market. This rapid increase in Internet usage coupled with the existing high adoption of wireless voice services and SMS, across Europe, creates a fertile market environment for the rapid adoption of mobile Internet services. Japan Japan is presently the leading market for consumer data applications. The successful introduction and marketing of “10-Yen P-Mail” by DoCoMo has lead to an explosive growth in the teenage marketplace. DoCoMo has successfully coupled marketplace needs (Teenagers like to chat!), an expensive device (less than US$100), an inexpensive service (10-yen per message), in one integrated package. The lesson to be learned from this market is that the consumer marketplace will respond to innovative services. The teenagers are not buying “Wireless Data”, they are buying alternative communications to friends. This market dynamic is similar to one of the market attributes driving SMS demand in Europe. In this context, Lucent is seeking to couple our technology and market knowledge with our customers, and our partners across the various “Internet Industries” to provide compelling solutions for the different and dynamic markets that exist today and continue to grow into the future. Vision I see the convergence of wireless and the Internet as a unique opportunity to energize the valuable assets of a mobile environment. There are essentially four end-user needs that have been identified that will enhance the wireless Internet experience and add the “context dimension” to applications. o Locate Me. Geo-location information is a key component to creating value added Internet applications. The end-user can request information based on their current or expected location, and applications can be automatically executed dependent on location. o Alert Me. Applications designed to notify the user of significant events that are relevant now. An always connected, packet information model enables this form of push services. o Know Me. Applications use common information sources such as a schedule or a personal profile to send notifications to the end user at the right time. The more a person uses mobile services and applications the better the service provider can understand and learn the needs of the end-user. This capability is an extension of the portal technology that has emerged in the Internet. o Know my device. The network identifies the device and filters content and services appropriately allowing the end-user to access information from multiple devices. This capability creates a separation of application from Network and device, thus enabling application providers to author services for a range of devices and networks from a common code base. These capabilities combine to produce context sensitive services based on time, location, activity, network connection and device. The following are examples of context sensitive services: The Cab Driver – Joe is driving his cab when the computer installed in his car sends an alert. The car begins to speak: “Joe, you are low on petrol. You can drive approximately 10 more miles. The nearest petrol station is in 5 miles. Would you like directions?” “Yes, Please.” The computer provides audio directions to the nearest petrol station. The Shopper – Suzy happens upon a great CD player while shopping. It’s reduced, but is it really the best price. She pulls out her hand held device and requests information on prices at other stores. Suzy continues browsing in the store. Within a few minutes she receives an alert that her information is ready. She reviews the information and discovers a better price from a different store. She selects her mobile e-commerce service and within minutes the CD player is ordered and on its way to her home. The Traveller – While travelling, Bob uses his geo-location service to guide him to his customer’s office. He arrives in time for his meeting. His meeting goes well but, it runs long so his device sends him an alert. “Bob, your scheduled flight is in one hour. You will need to leave your current location in 5 minutes in order to arrive to the airport on time. Would you like directions?” The Worry-Free Parent – Charles, who is 10, will be walking home from school. His parents know that he will be walking through a safe neighbourhood, but they’re still concerned and want to know his location and when he arrives home. They’ve provided Charles with a small button shaped device that attaches to his clothes. Now Charles’s parents can locate him whenever they want, whether he is on the playground or on his way home. The E-mail Demand – Sandra is a busy business professional who users her e-mail regularly to communicate with her customers. Sandra has set up her wireless service to filter her e-mail and alert her of important e-mail messages from her customer. When she receives urgent e-mail she can choose to have it read to her and respond with a verbal reply. Sandra knows that she won’t be missing any opportunities to serve her customer. The Sales Representative – Mike is a sales representative and he is out of the office most of the time, so he doesn’t have time to search his Intranet regularly for updated pricing information. So he sets up his wireless Intranet service so that he’s notified immediately of any important changes. This helps him keep on top of the business – and to keep his customer informed. Realisation of the Vision Working together to create this profitable marketplace are companies that represent information management, Internet technologies, streaming multimedia technology, content providers, device manufactures, wireless service providers and Internet service providers – a view of this industry that spans the entire value chain. Through partnership, it will be possible to better protect and serve the service providers and add value to the relationship with the end-user. In the future, streaming multimedia will be an important part of how information is communicated for both corporate purposes and personal entertainment. Lucent Lab, for example, has professional Internet broadcast facilities that provide a 24 hours per day, seven days per week broadcast called Lucent Web Radio, to company employees around the world. Employees access the broadcast through the company Intranet where they listen to news, training, executive updates and music while they work. The Intranet broadcasting studio is now focusing on Internet radio service for testing and development of mobile radio applications and will be expanded to include mobile video. The Layered Platform A layered middleware platform provides several important functions that become building blocks for applications development. Security and Integrity of User Data ,br> The security layer provides protection from unauthorised access to user data while allowing authorised applications access to information housed in network such as the home location registry. Proper security is a necessity to enable the service provider to become the trusted information source for applications such as e-commerce and personal information managers. Applications Building Blocks The building blocks offer resources such as location service, text to speech, speech to text, text to fax and e-mail. These applications enable developers to direct more resources to the end-user application. The service providers will provide a value-added service to the application community that powers the rapid development of new applications and services. Transport Mediation The transport mediation layer provides protocol conversion and device inter-operability. This function allows the service provider to serve the same content to a multitude of devices and across multiple networks. It also creates an independence of device and network capability for the application community. Service Creation The service creation layer, tools and software development kits will empower the broadest possible range of third party developers to access the rich set of capabilities provided within this network framework. This layer will provide an open Network API (application programming interface) that securely permits applications to utilise the value added capability of the service provider. Personal Security ‘Location Based Service’ will be a very important use of the Internet enabled mobile phone. In many countries where automobile theft rates are high, this application will prove to be quite significant since it can locate the car for recovery. Conclusion These capabilities will enable applications developers to leverage the unique qualities of wireless and will allow the service provider to easily build a killer applications environment that is flexible and responsive to the market. This sort of platform gives service providers the tools to play an key role in the value chain, one that goes far beyond the simple, basic, transport of content. Lucent is ready, eager and able to partner with companies that share this vision, and those of our customers. We are seeking to create the killer applications environment. Only with such an environment can the industry be empowered to produce a steady stream of profitable mobile, context-aware Internet services.