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Indonesia mobile service revenue growth to remain tepid over 2022-2027, forecasts GlobalData

by Anthony Weaver

Indonesia’s mobile service revenue is poised to grow at a mere 0.3%
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from $10.4 billion in 2022 to $10.6
billion in 2027, with continued decline in mobile voice revenues
outweighing steady progress in the mobile data service segment,
according to GlobalData [1], a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s Indonesia Mobile Broadband Forecast (Q1-2023) reveals
that mobile voice service revenue will decline at a 5.2% CAGR over the
forecast period due to the widespread consumer shift towards
over-the-top (OTT) based communication platforms and the subsequent
decline in voice service average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.

Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR
of 2.1% between 2022 and 2027, driven by the growing consumption of
mobile data services, continued rise in smartphone subscriptions and
projected rise in higher-ARPU yielding-5G subscriptions.

Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom [2] Research Analyst at GlobalData,
comments: “The average monthly data usage is forecast to increase from
9.8GB in 2022 to 25.3GB in 2027, driven by the increasing consumption of
online video and social media content over smartphones, on the back of
the growing availability and adoption of 4G/5G services and the
data-centric packages offered by MNOs.

4G will remain the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions
through 2027, driven by the operators’ LTE network expansions in
underserved areas as a part of the government’s plan to provide 4G
network access to all remote villages and sub-districts in the country
by 2023.

5G subscriptions, on the other hand, are estimated to increase at the
fastest rate over the forecast period and are expected to garner about
12% share of the total mobile subscriptions by the end of 2027, driven
by the ongoing 5G network expansions by operators.

Mahananda concludes: “Telkomsel [3] will continue to lead the mobile
services market in terms of subscription through 2027 given its strong
focus on 4G network developments and expansion across the country.
Moreover, the operator continues to add new customers through
omnichannel and social media strategies.”

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