 | Issue: | Latin America II 1999 |
| Article no.: | 2 | |
| Topic: | The Millennium Bug: Coming Soon to a Computer Near You | |
| Author: | Gonzalo de Dios and Janet Hernandez | |
| Title: | Not available | |
| Organisation: | Coudert Brothers, Washington, D.C. | |
| PDF size: | 24KB |
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Article abstract
The time remaining until the Year 2000 (Y2K) is short, and all Y2K-related problems cannot be resolved by then. Nations around the world should focus on contingency planning and co-ordination among those organisations and entities that support vital infrastructure sectors of the economy. Regional and international co-operation must escalate to ensure that contingency plans are undertaken and implemented. The risks of not succeeding in these efforts are great, but the risks of not doing anything at all are even greater…
Full Article
The Year 2000 (Y2K) problem is a unique phenomenon. Although it is fundamentally a technical problem, the Y2K problem has the potential to disrupt global marketplaces on a massive scale, by potentially crippling important sectors of the global economy. The Y2K problem may affect various sections of the global economy, including energy, transportation, financial institutions, water, health care, insurance, social services, emergency, security and communications, among many. Given the increased interdependence of nations and economies throughout the world, the Y2K problem has the potential to cause cross-border disruptions on a massive scale. Industries may find themselves unable to operate in an efficient and reliable manner. Hundreds of millions of people around the world may find the goods and services they are so accustomed to receive on a daily basis interrupted by computer malfunctions. Such disruptions will be particularly evident in the communications industry, which is heavily dependent on computers and computer systems, and is also relied upon by other industries for their respective operations. Overview of the Y2K Problem The Y2K problem results from the inability of computers and other automated systems, including millions of microchips, to process the date changes that will occur with the new millennium. The problem is not circumscribed to January 1st, 2000. Rather, it involves several different computer date changes prior to and following that date (e.g., September 9th , 1999 – or 9/9/99 – may be interpreted by computer systems as a special event or occurrence that can result in the closing or shutting down of certain applications or programs). The Y2K problem is a manmade creation. It results from choices made by computer system designers and programmers in the 1950’s and 1960’s. In order to store data in a cost-effective manner and preserve limited computer memory, designers and programmers represented computer dates as a two-digit numerical field, rather than the full four-digit field. Therefore, a 90 entry is assumed to be the year 1990. However, many computers may erroneously assume a 00 entry to be the year 1900, not 2000. As a result, computer systems and networks may malfunction when such dates are triggered. Such malfunctions may not be evident immediately, but may take time to detect and correct. Approaching the Y2K Problem Y2K has received much attention in recent years. From doomsday predictions to mere annoyances, media reports and industry commentators have analysed the effects this problem may have on the global economy. Several governments, international and regional organisations, such as the World Bank and the United Nations (UN), have undertaken efforts to minimise the effects of the problem. In many countries the private sector has also responded, taking the initiative where government efforts are inadequate. Given the many competing agenda items facing many developing countries, such as economic and political turmoil, a large number of these countries have not fully focused on Y2K. Approaching the Y2K problem is a burdensome and resource-intensive activity: the direct costs of solving the problem are enormous. Estimates of worldwide costs range from US$300-600 billion to as high as US$1.6 trillion, with potential significant economic impacts in the range of 0.3% to 1.1 % of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Some financial analysts suggest a 10% chance of a serious global recession as a result of the Y2K problem, which can further affect GDP. Approaching the problem requires economic, technical, legal and human resources that many governments and companies alike may not have readily available. It also requires commitment and responsibility at the highest level. The scope of the Y2K problem has been recognised by the UN, since Y2K-related failures could threaten the effective operations of governments, companies and other organisations throughout the world. In December 1998, National Y2K Co-ordinators from more than 120 countries met to exchange views and information about the means to address the problem. The co-ordinators agreed that a major international effort was needed to minimise the effects of Y2K. Most importantly, the participants underlined the responsibility of governments and private companies to initiate the necessary steps to ensure that the Y2K problem is addressed. Considering the impact Y2K may have on the communications industry, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has emphasised to its members the need to act. Resolution Com 5/20, adopted in November 1998, calls on members to take prompt action to address the Y2K problem. The ITU has provided much encouragement and support to governments and telecommunications operators and carriers seeking to prevent system failures. ITU Y2K Questionnaire In fact, the ITU provides many readily available resources to address the problem, and has undertaken a comprehensive Y2K Questionnaire to better understand the scope of Y2K failures. This Questionnaire, which was distributed to all ITU members, is intended to enable governments, operators and carriers to conduct a self-assessment of their own position, and to provide the ITU with a better understanding of their state of readiness. The ITU seeks to use the Questionnaire responses to target specific geographic regions, to provide practical support and guidance on how best to tackle the Y2K problem. ITU Y2K Taskforce The ITU Y2K Taskforce, in existence since March 1998, has been very active in raising awareness of the Y2K problem. It has been providing information and direction, encouraging the sharing of readiness information, co-ordinating solutions with other organisations around the world, providing guidance on business continuity planning and addressing concems about how best to approach the problem to ensure overall consistency. As a result, the Taskforce has developed a comprehensive guide that offers operators and carriers a thorough overview of the Y2K problem and steps to address it. A key function of the Y2K Taskforce has been the development of inter-carrier testing working groups to facilitate inter-operability testing on a global basis. These tests were helpful in uncovering Y2K-related problems. However, not all operators and carriers are actively participating in the problem-solving process. Responses to the ITU Questionnaire reveal that some carriers are better prepared than others, and that some regions are more pro-active in tackling the Y2K problem than others. These responses also reveal that some governments do not appear to be significantly involved in addressing the matter. This raises concerns about the ability to sustain ubiquitous global communications in case ofY2K-related failures. Serve as Leaders in Process The ITU recognises that major obstacles to addressing the Y2K problem remain. These include lack of awareness and action at government level, lack of awareness of the problem and recognition of its impact in general, and lack of available resources to assist in crafting adequate solutions. Lack of government involvement is particularly troublesome, since governments around the world can serve as leaders in the process, as information clearing-houses, and can encourage telecommunications operators and carriers to undertake actions and share information about their state of preparedness. Prepare for the Y1K Problem Governments can encourage operators and carriers to actively participate in workshops and network testing, and can also provide opportunities for operators and carriers to take advantage of existing mechanisms and resources intended to address the problem. Neither governments nor operator or carrier can solve the problem on their own. Rather, companies in all sectors of the global economy must also undertake the job of preparing for the Y2K problem, since many of the solutions may lie within their control. Implications for Developing Countries While much work has already been done to date to address the effects of Y2K, work remains. Particularly, developing nations need to undertake measures to tackle the issue. These countries have experienced a lack of adequate information about the Y2K problem, and also lack the required economic, technical and human resources to tackle the problem effectively. Nevertheless, developing nations cannot afford to ignore the consequences of the Y2K problem, since they are as vulnerable as others to the effects. Funding has been a critical issue for developing nations. In a recent statement, the World Bank indicated that few developing nations have taken concrete steps to correct potential Y2K problems. The World Bank, through its Information for Development Program (InfoDev), has developed an overall strategy to assist governments around the world in remedying the possible disruptions arising from Y2K. This program is intended to help governments manage risks, by providing funding and tools to respond to the problem. Governments can apply for two kinds of loans: planning grants (to support the development / improvement of national action plans) and implementation grants’ (to support remediation, testing and evaluation of targeted ,systems). However, so far only the US and the UK have committed significant resources to this program, putting into question the desire of other nations to assist developing countries in this process. The ITU Questionnaire reveals that most difficulties addressing the Y2K problem arise in developing countries. Approximately 57% of African nations responded to the Questionnaire, while 59% of nations in the Americas and Asia responded. These figures are not particularly low. However, progress to date by developing countries on solving Y2K related issues has lagged behind Europe and the US. The US Network Reliability and Inter-operability Council (NRIC), in conjunction with the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC), has recently issued a Y2K report addressing the communications sector. This report defines the problem faced by the US communications industry stemming from the Y2K problem. It also reviews Y2K compliance efforts in the international arena. NRIC found the international situation troubling because of the difficulty of obtaining meaningful and detailed information from many countries. High, medium and low risk countries were identified for purposes of this report, with most high risk countries in Central and South America, the Indian sub-continent and sub-Sahara regions. Medium risk countries encompass countries in Northern East Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and Eastern Europe. While most high-risk countries have lower teledensity and, thus, lower dependence on telecommunications services, they nevertheless constitute 21 % of the telecoms traffic with the US. Medium risk countries constitute 36% of this traffic. Hence, the impact of these countries on international telecoms cannot be discounted. The NRIC report identifies international communications as an area requiring attention. It expresses concern that some foreign carriers, particularly those in developing nations, may be ill equipped to address the seriousness of the Y2K problem, and may not yet have taken the necessary steps to prevent network or system failures. In fact, NRIC urged the FCC to advise the public to avoid unnecessary calls when the New Year begins, and to make important international calls in advance of January 1st, 2000. Whatever the state of Y2K readiness of these nations, there is little that can be done effectively to increase the pace of compliance. Consequently, contingency planning should drive the actions of those nations and companies that have yet to fully implement a cohesive and comprehensive approach. According to the ITU, Y2K approaches for communications systems should be driven by business criticality, i.e. operators and carriers should first identify those systems having the potential to cause serious disruptions to their infrastructure and business needs. In addition, possible failure dates should be reviewed according to particular system needs, so that only those dates that may trigger a failure are contemplated. As part of the process, operators and carriers should conduct their own system and equipment inventory, keeping in mind the importance of mission critical systems. Changes to interfaces should be avoided, unless absolutely necessary and consistent compliance / conformity definitions should be adopted. Conclusion The time remaining until the Y2K is short, and all Y2K-related problems cannot be resolved by then. Developing nations around the world and those nations that have yet to undertake a Y2K remedial process should give priority to protecting the health, welfare and safety of their citizens. They must do so by focusing on contingency planning and paying particular attention to co-ordination among those organisations and entities that support vital infrastructure sectors of the economy (e.g., communications). Developing nations must ensure not only that they take required actions, but also that private companies alike take necessary precautions to address Y2K. Regional and international cooperation must escalate, to ensure that contingency plans among nations are undertaken and implemented. The risks of not succeeding in these efforts are great, but the risks of not doing anything at all are even greater.
